Tool · Week 1 · Updated 1h ago · 3 books
Vegas Rankings
Sportsbooks lose money when their lines are wrong, so their player props are the sharpest free projection there is. This page turns them into fantasy points and shows where the market disagrees with the app in your pocket.
What the market is saying this week
The three or four numbers worth knowing before you set a lineup.
- The books expect the most points in DET at BUF, total 52.0, and TB at CIN, total 50.5.
- The market likes Patrick Mahomes far more than Sleeper: 16.7 vs 13.5, driven by books expect 230 pass yards, Sleeper 201.
- Sleeper likes Geno Smith far more than the market: 16.6 vs 12.2, driven by the market prices 0.9 passing touchdowns, Sleeper 1.5.
- Ashton Jeanty has moved the most since the last snapshot, up 12.1 points.
Start him. The apps are behind.
Players the books project at least 2 points above Sleeper.
books expect 230 pass yards, Sleeper 201
Market: Sit · Sleeper: Sit
the market prices 1.4 passing touchdowns, Sleeper 0.9
Market: Sit · Sleeper: Sit
the market prices 1.4 passing touchdowns, Sleeper 0.8
Market: Sit · Sleeper: Sit
the anytime TD price implies 0.5 touchdowns, Sleeper has 0.3
Market: WR1 · Sleeper: Flex
books have him at 4.5 catches, Sleeper says 3.5
Market: Streamer · Sleeper: Sit
Sit him. The market is cooler.
Players Sleeper projects as starters where the books are at least 2 points lower.
the market prices 0.9 passing touchdowns, Sleeper 1.5
Market: Sit · Sleeper: Sit
books have him at 3.7 catches, Sleeper says 5.3
Market: Streamer · Sleeper: TE1
books expect 40 receiving yards, Sleeper 60
Market: Sit · Sleeper: WR2
books expect 39 receiving yards, Sleeper 61
Market: Sit · Sleeper: Flex
books have him at 46 rush yards, Sleeper says 72
Market: RB2 · Sleeper: RB1
books expect 60 receiving yards, Sleeper 80
Market: WR2 · Sleeper: WR1
Game environment
Implied team totals from the spread and total. Stack the top of this list.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Spread | Total | Implied (away / home) | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF | Fri 12:15am | BUF -3.2 | 52.0 | 24.4 / 27.6 | Shootout |
| TB at CIN | Sun 5:00pm | CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 / 27.0 | Shootout |
| NO at DET | Sun 5:00pm | DET -6.8 | 49.8 | 21.5 / 28.3 | Shootout |
| SF at LAR | Fri 12:35am | LAR -3.5 | 48.5 | 22.5 / 26.0 | Average |
| DAL at NYG | Mon 12:20am | NYG +2.8 | 48.3 | 25.5 / 22.8 | Average |
| BAL at IND | Sun 5:00pm | IND +3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 / 22.0 | Average |
| ARI at LAC | Sun 8:25pm | LAC -9.5 | 47.5 | 19.0 / 28.5 | Average |
| CHI at CAR | Sun 5:00pm | CAR +3.0 | 47.0 | 25.0 / 22.0 | Average |
| GB at MIN | Sun 8:25pm | MIN -1.5 | 46.3 | 22.4 / 23.9 | Average |
| NE at SEA | Thu 12:20am | SEA -3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 / 24.0 | Slow |
| BUF at HOU | Sun 5:00pm | HOU +1.5 | 44.5 | 23.0 / 21.5 | Slow |
| WAS at PHI | Sun 8:25pm | PHI -5.3 | 44.5 | 19.6 / 24.9 | Slow |
| DEN at KC | Tue 12:15am | KC -2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 / 23.0 | Slow |
| ATL at PIT | Sun 5:00pm | PIT -3.5 | 42.0 | 19.3 / 22.8 | Slow |
| CLE at JAX | Sun 5:00pm | JAX -8.5 | 40.5 | 16.0 / 24.5 | Slow |
| MIA at LV | Sun 8:25pm | LV -3.0 | 40.2 | 18.6 / 21.6 | Slow |
| NYJ at TEN | Sun 5:00pm | TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 18.5 / 20.0 | Slow |
Full rankings
Every player with a posted line, ranked by scoring format.
| # | Player | Vegas | Sleeper | Gap | Tier | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NO · Sun 5:00PM | 23.5 | 22.1 | +1.4 | RB1 | flat |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson ATL vs PIT · Sun 5:00PM | 21.1 | 20.0 | +1.1 | RB1 | flat |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey SF vs LAR · Fri 12:35AM | 19.2 | 19.6 | -0.4 | RB1 | ↑0.1 |
| 4 | Jonathan Taylor IND vs BAL · Sun 5:00PM | 18.1 | 18.8 | -0.7 | RB1 | ↑4.4 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane MIA vs LV · Sun 8:25PM | 17.7 | 16.2 | +1.5 | RB1 | ↓0.3 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley PHI vs WAS · Sun 8:25PM | 16.6 | 15.9 | +0.7 | RB1 | flat |
| 7 | Chase Brown CIN vs TB · Sun 5:00PM | 16.5 | 17.1 | -0.6 | RB1 | ↑0.1 |
| 8 | Ashton Jeanty LV vs MIA · Sun 8:25PM | 16.3 | 16.1 | +0.2 | RB1 | ↑12.1 |
| 9 | Omarion Hampton LAC vs ARI · Sun 8:25PM | 15.7 | 16.0 | -0.3 | RB1 | ↑3.1 |
| 10 | Derrick Henry BAL vs IND · Sun 5:00PM | 15.7 | 15.3 | +0.4 | RB1 | ↑1.1 |
| 11 | James Cook BUF vs HOU · Sun 5:00PM | 15.6 | 15.6 | even | RB1 | ↑0.3 |
| 12 | Javonte Williams DAL vs NYG · Mon 12:20AM | 15.0 | 17.7 | -2.7 | RB1 | ↑2.3 |
| 13 | Kenneth Walker III KC vs DEN · Tue 12:15AM | 14.5 | 13.7 | +0.8 | RB2 | - |
| 14 | Breece Hall NYJ vs TEN · Sun 5:00PM | 14.4 | 15.6 | -1.2 | RB2 | ↓0.1 |
| 15 | D'Andre Swift CHI vs CAR · Sun 5:00PM | 14.3 | 13.6 | +0.7 | RB2 | ↑8.3 |
| 16 | Travis Etienne Jr. NO vs DET · Sun 5:00PM | 14.1 | 14.5 | -0.4 | RB2 | ↓0.5 |
| 17 | Kyren Williams LAR vs SF · Fri 12:35AM | 13.1 | 14.6 | -1.5 | RB2 | flat |
| 18 | Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs SEA · Thu 12:20AM | 12.9 | 16.4 | -3.5 | RB2 | flat |
| 19 | Bucky Irving TB vs CIN · Sun 5:00PM | 12.6 | 13.6 | -1.0 | RB2 | ↑0.1 |
| 20 | Cam Skattebo NYG vs DAL · Mon 12:20AM | 12.5 | 15.5 | -3.0 | RB2 | ↑3.4 |
| 21 | Jaylen Warren PIT vs ATL · Sun 5:00PM | 12.1 | 13.1 | -1.0 | RB2 | ↑0.4 |
| 22 | David Montgomery HOU vs BUF · Sun 5:00PM | 12.0 | 15.3 | -3.3 | RB2 | ↑0.1 |
| 23 | Quinshon Judkins CLE vs JAX · Sun 5:00PM | 11.4 | 10.9 | +0.5 | RB2 | flat |
| 24 | MarShawn Lloyd GB vs MIN · Sun 8:25PM | 11.2 | 9.8 | +1.4 | RB2 | ↑1.8 |
| 25 | Tony Pollard TEN vs NYJ · Sun 5:00PM | 10.8 | 10.9 | -0.1 | Flex | ↑1.7 |
| 26 | Bhayshul Tuten JAX vs CLE · Sun 5:00PM | 10.8 | 10.6 | +0.2 | Flex | ↓0.1 |
| 27 | Rico Dowdle PIT vs ATL · Sun 5:00PM | 10.5 | 12.2 | -1.7 | Flex | ↓0.2 |
| 28 | Jadarian Price SEA vs NE · Thu 12:20AM | 10.4 | 9.8 | +0.6 | Flex | flat |
| 29 | Jeremiyah Love ARI vs LAC · Sun 8:25PM | 10.2 | 12.7 | -2.5 | Flex | ↑7.8 |
| 30 | Aaron Jones MIN vs GB · Sun 8:25PM | 10.0 | 8.8 | +1.2 | Flex | ↑4.0 |
| 31 | Kenny Gainwell TB vs CIN · Sun 5:00PM | 9.7 | 10.4 | -0.7 | Flex | ↑0.2 |
| 32 | Rachaad White WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:25PM | 8.6 | 9.2 | -0.6 | Flex | ↑6.8 |
| 33 | Tyjae Spears TEN vs NYJ · Sun 5:00PM | 8.3 | 8.8 | -0.5 | Flex | ↑4.4 |
| 34 | J.K. Dobbins DEN vs KC · Tue 12:15AM | 7.8 | 10.2 | -2.4 | Flex | - |
| 35 | RJ Harvey DEN vs KC · Tue 12:15AM | 7.8 | 9.6 | -1.8 | Flex | - |
| 36 | Woody Marks HOU vs BUF · Sun 5:00PM | 7.3 | 8.8 | -1.5 | Flex | ↑1.5 |
| 37 | George Holani SEA vs NE · Thu 12:20AM | 7.2 | 5.6 | +1.6 | Sit | flat |
| 38 | TreVeyon Henderson NE vs SEA · Thu 12:20AM | 6.7 | - | - | Sit | flat |
| 39 | Samaje Perine CIN vs TB · Sun 5:00PM | 5.7 | 5.6 | +0.1 | Sit | ↑2.5 |
| 40 | Justice Hill BAL vs IND · Sun 5:00PM | 5.2 | 5.1 | +0.1 | Sit | ↑4.6 |
| Partial lines | ||||||
| - | Blake Corum LAR vs SF · Fri 12:35AM | 7.5 | 8.6 | - | - | - |
| - | Jordan Mason MIN vs GB · Sun 8:25PM | 7.5 | 8.6 | - | - | - |
| - | Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:25PM | 7.1 | 9.8 | - | - | - |
| - | Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX vs CLE · Sun 5:00PM | 5.9 | 7.5 | - | - | - |
| - | Kyle Monangai CHI vs CAR · Sun 5:00PM | 5.2 | 7.4 | - | - | - |
| - | Tyler Allgeier ARI vs LAC · Sun 8:25PM | 4.7 | 8.2 | - | - | - |
| - | Chuba Hubbard CAR vs CHI · Sun 5:00PM | 3.6 | 10.9 | - | - | - |
| - | Brian Robinson Jr. ATL vs PIT · Sun 5:00PM | 3.6 | 4.6 | - | - | - |
| - | Braelon Allen NYJ vs TEN · Sun 5:00PM | 3.6 | 4.3 | - | - | - |
| - | Jonathon Brooks CAR vs CHI · Sun 5:00PM | 3.0 | 10.0 | - | - | - |
How this works
Lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via The Odds API, refreshed several times a day from Tuesday until kickoff. When books disagree, we average across whichever of the three have posted a number.
A line becomes points the direct way: a 72.5 receiving yards line is roughly the median outcome, so it counts as 7.25 points, nudged up or down by how lopsided the over/under prices are. Anytime touchdown odds have the book's built-in margin removed and are converted to expected touchdowns. Passing touchdowns and interceptions come from their own separate lines.
Sleeper's projections are Rotowire-powered and are what a large share of leagues draft and set lineups on, which makes them the right thing to compare the market against.
"Partial lines" means the market is not done pricing him yet. A receiver needs a receptions line, a receiving yards line and a touchdown price before he is ranked with confidence - until then he shows up below the divider.
Every snapshot we pull is stored. Once games are played, each week's projections get scored against what actually happened - we will publish that accuracy check as its own post.