Fantasy Squawk / Research2026 season · Running backs

The handcuff sheet.

Who gets the work when your running back is out? All 32 backfields, with last season’s usage beside the names.

The 2026 backfields

Select a row for the scouting note.
2026 running back succession. Carries and targets are the first alternative’s actual 2025 totals, not projections.
TeamLead RBLead RB → next upFirst alternativeCAR ’25TGT ’25Our read
ARITyler Allgeier14316Split
ATLBrian Robinson Jr.9212Clear
BALJustice Hill1827Open
BUFRay Davis5813Split
CARJonathon BrooksOpen
CHIKyle Monangai16930Clear
CINSamaje Perine8421Clear
CLEDylan Sampson6540Clear
DALMalik Davis525Split
DENRJ Harvey14658Split
DETSione Vaki10Open
GBChris Brooks2717Open
HOUWoody Marks19636Split
INDSeth McGowanOpen
JAXChris Rodriguez Jr.1124Split
KCEmmett JohnsonOpen
LACKeaton Mitchell5912Open
LARBlake Corum14514Clear
LVMike Washington Jr.Open
MIAJaylen Wright709Split
MINJordan Mason15916Clear
NETreVeyon Henderson18042Split
NOAlvin Kamara13139Split
NYGTyrone Tracy Jr.17648Clear
NYJBraelon Allen183Split
PHITank Bigsby634Split
PITRico Dowdle23650Split
SEAGeorge Holani222Open
SFKaelon BlackOpen
TBKenny Gainwell11485Split
TENTyjae Spears7250Split
WASRachaad White13245Split

Clear = stronger claim · Split = competing roles · Open = unproven.
Our reads describe the replacement path, not injury risk. A dash means no 2025 workload.

32 / 32 teams
BUFBuffalo Bills

Our read: SplitMultiple backs have a case, or the No. 2 already has a substantial role.

Davis for carries; keep Johnson in the picture.

Ray Davis is listed second, but Ty Johnson had 33 targets in 2025 to Davis's 13. Both also had at least 50 carries. Davis is the first name to check after a Cook absence, with Johnson a credible competitor for passing work.

If James Cook III is out: start with Ray Davis.

Last season’s work. Team shown is the 2025 team.
PlayerCarriesTargets
James Cook IIIBUF30940
Ray DavisBUF5813
Ty JohnsonBUF · Questionable5033

Actual 2025 totals. New team pairings may divide the work differently. The depth chart does not settle who gets the goal-line carries.

Past games & coaching context

Joe Brady: 0 qualifying absences during his head-coaching tenures. He is new to this team. Small samples and changing personnel limit what this tells us. Coach DNA.

The historical check / 2015–2025

Getting the job is only half of it.

We identified the expected backup before each of 190 qualifying first missed games. He led or tied for the lead in RB carries plus targets 115 times. Only 73 of those 190 backup performances finished in the weekly PPR top 24. A bigger role does not always produce a starting fantasy score.

Outcomes for the expected backup
Led RB workload115/19060.5%
Top-24 PPR finish73/19038.4%
Median PPR score9.0 pts
73 top-24 finishes. 117 outside the top 24.Each square is one first missed game.
Green: expected backup finished top 24 in PPR. Grey: all other results, including no stat line. Grouped by outcome. This sample includes absences from all causes, not just injuries.

The expected backup’s median share was 61.5% of RB carries (190 games), 57.1% of RB targets (189 games), and 66.7% of RB carries inside the five (98 games). These are shares of the remaining backfield’s actual work, not a percentage of the absent starter’s old workload. Games with no opportunities of a given type are excluded from that median.

The game-by-game record

Download 190 rows (.csv)
Expected backups identified before each first missed game; PPR outcomes and shares of the remaining RB workload.
GameAbsent leadExpected backupRB carriesRB targetsPPRFinish
2025 W17 · CLEQuinshon JudkinsTrayveon Williams10%0%1.0RB69
2025 W16 · NODevin NealEvan Hull50%0%0.3RB79
2025 W16 · HOUWoody MarksDare Ogunbowale5%14%0.9RB75
2025 W15 · WASChris Rodriguez Jr.Jeremy McNichols33%100%1.2RB68
2025 W13 · NOAlvin KamaraDevin Neal74%100%9.9RB36
2025 W12 · GBJosh JacobsEmanuel Wilson78%67%26.5RB3
2025 W11 · DENJ.K. DobbinsRJ Harvey65%60%8.0RB37
2025 W9 · NYGCam SkatteboTyrone Tracy Jr.39%67%6.7RB34

190 qualifying absences

Definitions & sources

  1. Establish the lead. Over the preceding three team games, the RB led his backfield in carries plus targets, averaged at least 12 per game and received at least half of all RB opportunities.
  2. Identify a first missed game. He played offensive snaps in the preceding team game, then recorded neither an offensive snap nor an RB stat line in the next one. Byes do not count. Playing on another team that week excludes an apparent absence.
  3. Select the backup using prior evidence. Take the highest remaining RB on the preceding game’s archived depth chart who also played an offensive snap in that preceding game. Skip missing charts and ties. The eventual result cannot change that selection.
  4. Measure the next game. Count PPR points, weekly RB rank and shares of RB carries, targets and carries inside the five. Tied workload leaders count. A missing stat line scores zero with no weekly rank. The 13 backups who played no offensive snaps in the outcome game remain in the results.
Sample exclusions, chart timing & limitations

We exclude the first three team games, the final regular-season team game, playoffs, in-game injuries with offensive participation and backfields that fail the lead-back volume rule. One prolonged absence counts once; a separate absence after a return can qualify again. Players with no offensive snap in the preceding game are excluded as replacement candidates, including healthy but unused backups.

Charts through 2024 have week labels. For 2025, we use the most recent timestamp strictly before midnight UTC on the preceding game’s date, at most seven days old. Current depth charts never determine a historical backup.

Absences may reflect injury, suspension, rest or another cause. This is not an injury-probability estimate or a season-long handcuff return study. Repeated players and teams are correlated, so these descriptive rates are not individual-player probabilities. Later practice reports can improve on the earlier chart’s selection.

Weekly ranks use nflverse PPR scoring and competition ranking (ties share a rank). Goal-line carries are RB runs from inside the five, excluding kneels and no-plays. Zero denominators are excluded from the corresponding share median. The goal-line sample is smaller and can contain only one such carry per game.

The 2026 categories are editorial reads of the dated chart and 2025 usage, separate from historical aggregate rates. They do not assign exact future workload shares. Coaching receipts describe head-coaching tenures, not isolated play-caller effects. Scoring settings, waiver availability, acquisition cost and roster alternatives are outside this study.

Qualifying games by season: 2015: 20 · 2016: 10 · 2017: 12 · 2018: 16 · 2019: 14 · 2020: 23 · 2021: 29 · 2022: 12 · 2023: 19 · 2024: 18 · 2025: 17.

Depth charts: . Roster designations checked September 8. This is a dated pre-Week 1 reference; check current practice reports before making a move.

Sources: archived depth charts, weekly player statistics, snap counts, play-by-play, game schedules (nflverse), and Sleeper roster designations.