The handcuff sheet.
Who gets the work when your running back is out? All 32 backfields, with last season’s usage beside the names.
The 2026 backfields
Select a row for the scouting note.| Team | Lead RBLead RB → next up | First alternative | CAR ’25 | TGT ’25 | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 143 | 16 | Split | |
| ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | 92 | 12 | Clear | |
| BAL | Justice Hill | 18 | 27 | Open | |
| BUF | Ray Davis | 58 | 13 | Split | |
| CAR | Jonathon Brooks | — | — | Open | |
| CHI | Kyle Monangai | 169 | 30 | Clear | |
| CIN | Samaje Perine | 84 | 21 | Clear | |
| CLE | Dylan Sampson | 65 | 40 | Clear | |
| DAL | Malik Davis | 52 | 5 | Split | |
| DEN | RJ Harvey | 146 | 58 | Split | |
| DET | Sione Vaki | 1 | 0 | Open | |
| GB | Chris Brooks | 27 | 17 | Open | |
| HOU | Woody Marks | 196 | 36 | Split | |
| IND | Seth McGowan | — | — | Open | |
| JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 112 | 4 | Split | |
| KC | Emmett Johnson | — | — | Open | |
| LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 59 | 12 | Open | |
| LAR | Blake Corum | 145 | 14 | Clear | |
| LV | Mike Washington Jr. | — | — | Open | |
| MIA | Jaylen Wright | 70 | 9 | Split | |
| MIN | Jordan Mason | 159 | 16 | Clear | |
| NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 180 | 42 | Split | |
| NO | Alvin Kamara | 131 | 39 | Split | |
| NYG | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 176 | 48 | Clear | |
| NYJ | Braelon Allen | 18 | 3 | Split | |
| PHI | Tank Bigsby | 63 | 4 | Split | |
| PIT | Rico Dowdle | 236 | 50 | Split | |
| SEA | George Holani | 22 | 2 | Open | |
| SF | Kaelon Black | — | — | Open | |
| TB | Kenny Gainwell | 114 | 85 | Split | |
| TEN | Tyjae Spears | 72 | 50 | Split | |
| WAS | Rachaad White | 132 | 45 | Split |
Clear = stronger claim · Split = competing roles · Open = unproven.
Our reads describe the replacement path, not injury risk. A dash means no 2025 workload.
Our read: SplitMultiple backs have a case, or the No. 2 already has a substantial role.
Davis for carries; keep Johnson in the picture.
Ray Davis is listed second, but Ty Johnson had 33 targets in 2025 to Davis's 13. Both also had at least 50 carries. Davis is the first name to check after a Cook absence, with Johnson a credible competitor for passing work.
If James Cook III is out: start with Ray Davis.
| Player | Carries | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook IIIBUF | 309 | 40 |
| Ray DavisBUF | 58 | 13 |
| Ty JohnsonBUF · Questionable | 50 | 33 |
Actual 2025 totals. New team pairings may divide the work differently. The depth chart does not settle who gets the goal-line carries.
Past games & coaching context
Joe Brady: 0 qualifying absences during his head-coaching tenures. He is new to this team. Small samples and changing personnel limit what this tells us. Coach DNA.
- 2024 W6: Ty Johnson, 3.4 PPR (RB45). Workload led by Ray Davis.
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The historical check / 2015–2025
Getting the job is only half of it.
We identified the expected backup before each of 190 qualifying first missed games. He led or tied for the lead in RB carries plus targets 115 times. Only 73 of those 190 backup performances finished in the weekly PPR top 24. A bigger role does not always produce a starting fantasy score.
| Led RB workload | 115/190 | 60.5% |
| Top-24 PPR finish | 73/190 | 38.4% |
| Median PPR score | 9.0 pts | |
The expected backup’s median share was 61.5% of RB carries (190 games), 57.1% of RB targets (189 games), and 66.7% of RB carries inside the five (98 games). These are shares of the remaining backfield’s actual work, not a percentage of the absent starter’s old workload. Games with no opportunities of a given type are excluded from that median.
The game-by-game record
Download 190 rows (.csv)| Game | Absent lead | Expected backup | RB carries | RB targets | PPR | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 · CLE | Quinshon Judkins | Trayveon Williams | 10% | 0% | 1.0 | RB69 |
| 2025 W16 · NO | Devin Neal | Evan Hull | 50% | 0% | 0.3 | RB79 |
| 2025 W16 · HOU | Woody Marks | Dare Ogunbowale | 5% | 14% | 0.9 | RB75 |
| 2025 W15 · WAS | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jeremy McNichols | 33% | 100% | 1.2 | RB68 |
| 2025 W13 · NO | Alvin Kamara | Devin Neal | 74% | 100% | 9.9 | RB36 |
| 2025 W12 · GB | Josh Jacobs | Emanuel Wilson | 78% | 67% | 26.5 | RB3 |
| 2025 W11 · DEN | J.K. Dobbins | RJ Harvey | 65% | 60% | 8.0 | RB37 |
| 2025 W9 · NYG | Cam Skattebo | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 39% | 67% | 6.7 | RB34 |
190 qualifying absences
Definitions & sources
- Establish the lead. Over the preceding three team games, the RB led his backfield in carries plus targets, averaged at least 12 per game and received at least half of all RB opportunities.
- Identify a first missed game. He played offensive snaps in the preceding team game, then recorded neither an offensive snap nor an RB stat line in the next one. Byes do not count. Playing on another team that week excludes an apparent absence.
- Select the backup using prior evidence. Take the highest remaining RB on the preceding game’s archived depth chart who also played an offensive snap in that preceding game. Skip missing charts and ties. The eventual result cannot change that selection.
- Measure the next game. Count PPR points, weekly RB rank and shares of RB carries, targets and carries inside the five. Tied workload leaders count. A missing stat line scores zero with no weekly rank. The 13 backups who played no offensive snaps in the outcome game remain in the results.
Sample exclusions, chart timing & limitations
We exclude the first three team games, the final regular-season team game, playoffs, in-game injuries with offensive participation and backfields that fail the lead-back volume rule. One prolonged absence counts once; a separate absence after a return can qualify again. Players with no offensive snap in the preceding game are excluded as replacement candidates, including healthy but unused backups.
Charts through 2024 have week labels. For 2025, we use the most recent timestamp strictly before midnight UTC on the preceding game’s date, at most seven days old. Current depth charts never determine a historical backup.
Absences may reflect injury, suspension, rest or another cause. This is not an injury-probability estimate or a season-long handcuff return study. Repeated players and teams are correlated, so these descriptive rates are not individual-player probabilities. Later practice reports can improve on the earlier chart’s selection.
Weekly ranks use nflverse PPR scoring and competition ranking (ties share a rank). Goal-line carries are RB runs from inside the five, excluding kneels and no-plays. Zero denominators are excluded from the corresponding share median. The goal-line sample is smaller and can contain only one such carry per game.
The 2026 categories are editorial reads of the dated chart and 2025 usage, separate from historical aggregate rates. They do not assign exact future workload shares. Coaching receipts describe head-coaching tenures, not isolated play-caller effects. Scoring settings, waiver availability, acquisition cost and roster alternatives are outside this study.
Qualifying games by season: 2015: 20 · 2016: 10 · 2017: 12 · 2018: 16 · 2019: 14 · 2020: 23 · 2021: 29 · 2022: 12 · 2023: 19 · 2024: 18 · 2025: 17.
Depth charts: . Roster designations checked September 8. This is a dated pre-Week 1 reference; check current practice reports before making a move.
Sources: archived depth charts, weekly player statistics, snap counts, play-by-play, game schedules (nflverse), and Sleeper roster designations.