Experts vs. Vegas.

We read Boris Chen’s public weekly position files, built from a selected pool of FantasyPros expert rankings. RB, WR and TE use PPR files; QB uses the shared quarterback file. This is Boris Chen’s selected consensus, not ESPN rankings or the entire FantasyPros ECR pool.

We check each file’s publication timestamp against this week’s Tuesday-to-Monday window, require the weekly matchup column, and match each player’s opponent and home/away status against our season-and-week schedule. Stale, draft or mismatched files are excluded. The source is checked hourly. Each player’s detail shows the source timestamp, published position rank, average expert rank and tier.

Experts vs. Vegas includes players regardless of Reddit discussion. Both sides rank the same matched players at each position; expert ordering uses the average expert rank, with tied values receiving an average rank. That comparison rank can differ from the published source rank shown in the detail panel. Tiers provide context; they do not create artificial ordering within a tier.

Reddit: one detected player mention per collected post or comment in the trailing seven days. Machine-scored positive and negative mentions get weight min(3, 1 + log10(1 + max(0, upvotes))). The score is 100 × (positive weight − negative weight) / (positive weight + negative weight + 10). The extra 10 pulls small samples toward zero. Neutral and unscored mentions are reported separately. Upvotes are snapshots at collection time, not final totals. Volume controls dot size; the last two 24-hour counts show velocity. Neither increases favorability by itself.

Expert comparison: QB, RB, WR and TE players with verified weekly expert data and usable pre-kickoff Vegas estimates. Reddit mentions are optional. Each position requires at least five matched players.

Reddit comparisons: players with at least 10 positive or negative opinions, at least half their detected mentions scored, and discussion across at least three threads. Each position needs at least five qualifying players with usable market data. The chart ranks that same sample on both axes; ties receive their average rank. A three-rank gap receives a disagreement label. The board initially shows the ten largest absolute gaps; Explore all reveals the full matched sample. A positive score means net favorable opinions; a high percentile means more favorable than the other matched players. Those are different measures.

The inputs are sportsbook quotes. The Sportsbooks tab shows the posted yardage and reception lines, plus Over/Under or anytime-touchdown prices, separately for DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM where supplied. We collect them through The Odds API; this is a data-provider feed, not a direct integration with each book. Values in that tab are not averaged or adjusted.

The PPR total is our calculation. The comparison ranks a fantasy-point estimate derived from those props using the Vegas tool's methodology. It is not a fantasy total published by a sportsbook. Converting betting lines and touchdown prices into expected fantasy points requires assumptions; an over/under is not a statistical mean. Core prop coverage is required, but some secondary scoring components can still be missing.

Quotes and projections must be no more than seven days old and before kickoff. Each quote shows its collection time; older than 48 hours is flagged. The raw quote tab can contain a newer collection than the last computed PPR estimate. Neither should be described as a currently executable betting price.

Draft market: 2026 12-team PPR average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator, with snapshots no more than seven days old. Lower picks rank higher. ADP measures season-long draft cost; Vegas covers one week. We show them separately. Weekly expert consensus is a separate comparison using verified weekly source files, rather than the undated tiers stored for draft tools.

What a gap means: a disagreement in relative ordering, not a buy/sell signal or a validated predictive edge. The Reddit collection is a sample, mention detection and sentiment can be wrong, the same author may comment repeatedly, and one thread can dominate even with a three-thread minimum. News after a market snapshot, injury discussion and different time horizons can explain a gap. Missing mentions do not mean Reddit dislikes a player. This does not establish that Reddit caused a change in ADP.

Reddit window: 2026-09-03T14:08:29.210Z to 2026-09-10T14:08:29.210Z. 334 fantasy players detected; 76 meet the Reddit threshold. Those Reddit thresholds apply only to the Reddit comparisons. Expert comparison coverage depends on the overlap of verified weekly rankings and sportsbook estimates. The board starts with up to ten players and lets you explore every qualifying comparison.