Experts vs. Vegas Week 2 recap: Vegas wins all three formats

Davante Adams was WR23 in the saved expert comparison and WR7 in our sportsbook-based rankings. He scored 39.5 PPR points and finished second among the receivers we tracked.

That was the biggest rank disagreement on our Week 2 PPR board—and it went Vegas's way. So did the overall result, although the margin was much smaller than that example suggests.

We compared the saved pregame rankings with final Week 2 fantasy points. The expert side is FantasyPros consensus via Boris Chen; the Vegas side is our fantasy-point calculation from sportsbook props.

The scorecard

These numbers are the average distance between a predicted position rank and the player's actual position rank. Lower is better. Predicting RB10 for a player who finishes RB15 means five ranks off.

The counts differ because each format has its own matched comparison group. Within each format, both sides are scored against exactly the same players.

Full PPR by position

Vegas was closer on 68 individual players, experts on 52, with 26 ties. Those counts are separate from the average-error score above.

Where the disagreements landed

All ranks below are within our matched position groups, not the entire NFL. These are selected examples; the overall score includes everyone on the saved board.

Adams and Schultz rewarded the higher Vegas ranking, though both still outperformed it. Godwin was an almost exact expert hit. Metcalf is a useful counterexample: the market was more optimistic, and the more cautious expert rank finished closer. Fractional ranks reflect ties.

An injury caveat that matters

Puka Nacua, Nico Collins and Michael Pittman remained in the saved comparison but were inactive. The main scorecard keeps them in the original group at zero points, based on the Rams' inactive report and NFL.com's Sunday lists. Missing stats alone never count as a zero.

We also removed those three and re-ranked both predictions and results within the remaining group. Vegas still finished closer in all three formats. In PPR, that comparison was 9.27 ranks off for Vegas versus 9.87 for experts, across 143 players.

Their presence is a limitation of the saved board's injury freshness. Inputs stopped updating at each player's kickoff, but the underlying expert files and sportsbook collections were not necessarily equally recent. This measures the comparison we saved, including those timing differences.

Our takeaway: a good week for the prop-derived rankings, especially at running back. The PPR margin was about six-tenths of a rank per player, and experts still won quarterback. That's a result to track over more weeks before treating it as an edge.

Explore every player result in the interactive Week 2 recap. Switch between Standard, Half PPR and Full PPR to see how the results change.

FantasySquawk calculates the Vegas fantasy estimates from sportsbook props. They are not fantasy projections published by sportsbooks.

Results checked September 22 against Sleeper's raw Week 2 stats, nflverse player stats, and final game status from ESPN. Passing TDs are four points, interceptions and lost fumbles are minus two, with no yardage bonuses. Tied scores share an average rank.