What Jameis Winston means for Malik Nabers
Jerry Jeudy averaged 112 receiving yards in Winston’s Cleveland starts. The case for holding Nabers starts there.
Malik Nabers finished Monday night with one catch for one yard. Jaxson Dart left with a knee injury, and Tuesday’s reporting raised the possibility of a season-long absence. That leaves Nabers managers trying to value their best receiver with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
We’d hold Nabers rather than sell at a discount because of Winston. There is enough history here to take his WR1 upside seriously. Jerry Jeudy is the recent example; Mike Evans and Chris Godwin did it over longer stretches.
Nabers’ shoulder is the more immediate concern. He left the Rams game, returned, and barely produced. Winston struggled too: 11 completions on 27 attempts, 111 yards and an interception. Neither gave fantasy managers much to feel good about. That game’s injury context matters, but so does Winston’s record before it.
Start with what happened to Jeudy.
In seven games started by Winston in 2024, Jeudy caught 49 passes for 786 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 21.1 PPR points. In Cleveland’s other ten games, he averaged 9.3.
It wasn’t only a touchdown bump. Jeudy went from 44 receiving yards per game to 112. His targets rose from 7.6 to 9.9.
Jeudy’s 2024 season, split by starting quarterback
Per-game averages · full PPR
Targets
Receiving yards
PPR points
21.1 PPR points per game with Denver included (seven games).
Denver did a lot of work in that average: nine catches, 235 yards, a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Remove it and Jeudy still averaged 17.9 PPR points across the other six starts. He had at least five catches in every one of the seven games.
Jeudy cleared 12 PPR points in all seven games
Jeudy’s PPR points in Winston’s seven 2024 starts
View game data
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | BAL | 8 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 9 | LAC | 11 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 14.3 |
| 11 | NO | 11 | 6 | 142 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 12 | PIT | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 13 | DEN | 13 | 9 | 235 | 1 | 40.5 |
| 14 | PIT | 6 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 17.4 |
| 15 | KC | 14 | 11 | 108 | 0 | 21.8 |
Tampa Bay is the longer answer.
If Dart is out for the year, a seven-game hot streak only gets us so far. Winston’s 2019 season is more useful for that question. He started every game, and Tampa Bay had two receivers averaging roughly 18 or more PPR points.
Two 1,000-yard receivers in 2019
Receiving yards, with each player’s own games-played denominator
Evans also had 96 catches, 1,321 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2016. Those are substantial seasons to point to when someone says Nabers can’t produce with Winston.
But “Winston feeds his WR1” leaves out some less exciting years. Here is every season in which he started a regular-season game, using the receiver who drew the most targets in those starts.
The full record includes New Orleans
Lead WR’s PPR points per game in Winston starts · dots share a 0–25 scale
View game data
| Season | Lead WR | Games | Targets | Rec. | Yards | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Mike Evans | 15 | 148 | 74 | 1206 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans | 16 | 173 | 96 | 1321 | 12 | 19.0 |
| 2017 | Mike Evans | 13 | 114 | 60 | 831 | 5 | 13.5 |
| 2018 | Mike Evans | 9 | 76 | 47 | 911 | 4 | 18.0 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin | 14 | 121 | 86 | 1333 | 9 | 19.7 |
| 2021 | Marquez Callaway | 7 | 33 | 19 | 284 | 3 | 9.3 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave | 3 | 29 | 17 | 268 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 2024 | Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 69 | 49 | 786 | 3 | 21.1 |
| 2025 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 23 | 13 | 192 | 1 | 19.1 |
Marquez Callaway averaged 9.3 PPR points in seven Winston starts. Chris Olave averaged 14.6 in three. Receiver talent and the offense around the quarterback matter. There is no single Winston multiplier to apply to Nabers.
The Giants have already had a small preview.
Wan’Dale Robinson averaged 19.1 PPR points in Winston’s two starts last year. Look at the individual games before getting too attached to that number.
Two games that average out to 19.1
Wan’Dale Robinson · Winston’s 2025 Giants starts · full PPR
4 catches · 36 yards · 0 TD
9 catches · 156 yards · 1 TD
That Detroit game is encouraging for anyone rostering a Giants receiver. The Green Bay game belongs in the conversation too. The average was excellent; the experience of starting Robinson was much less tidy.
Nabers already has the target history.
Nabers drew 170 targets in 15 games as a rookie. He reached double-digit targets in ten of them. The case for holding him starts with that ability to command the ball.
Nabers’ rookie workload rarely disappeared
Targets by game · 2024 regular season · 11.3 per game
Week
View game data
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 7 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| 2 | WAS | 18 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| 3 | CLE | 12 | 8 | 78 | 2 |
| 4 | DAL | 15 | 12 | 115 | 0 |
| 7 | PHI | 8 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| 8 | PIT | 13 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| 9 | WAS | 11 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| 10 | CAR | 10 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| 12 | TB | 9 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| 13 | DAL | 13 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| 14 | NO | 10 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| 15 | BAL | 14 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| 16 | ATL | 14 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| 17 | IND | 8 | 7 | 171 | 2 |
| 18 | PHI | 8 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
Winston’s best receiver seasons are a reason to believe those targets can remain valuable. They aren’t evidence that Nabers will get more targets than he would with Dart, or that the Giants will suddenly throw like the 2024 Browns.
We’d keep Nabers and leave room for a WR1 season if he is healthy. We would not trade for him at a higher price just because Winston is taking over. Monday’s shoulder injury, his practice participation and whether he resumes a full route workload come first.
If the shoulder checks out, the next thing to watch is straightforward: is he still getting the ball? A normal Nabers target count would be more persuasive than another comparison to Jeudy.
Sources and sample definitions
Historical calculations use nflverse weekly statistics and starting-quarterback schedules. Full PPR throughout, with no yardage bonuses. Quarterback interceptions do not directly subtract points from the receiver; the player totals include rushing, two-point conversions and lost fumbles where applicable.
Lead WR = the receiver with the most total targets during a season’s Winston starts, selected after the fact. Per-game averages count that receiver’s statistical appearances. Full-game totals can include another quarterback’s throws after Winston leaves. That affects some 2017/2018 games, his 2021 injury exit and Cleveland Week 15 of 2024. The 2026 Rams relief appearance is discussed separately.
The schedule download incorrectly credited New Orleans Week 8 in 2022 and Cleveland Weeks 16–17 in 2024 as Winston starts. We excluded those games after checking the NFL’s 2022 summary and Cleveland’s seven-start season review. Included weeks are recorded in the download.
These comparisons do not isolate the quarterback’s effect from receiver talent, opponents, teammates or coaching. Dart’s season-long absence remains a reported possibility as of September 22, 2026. The article considers an extended Winston stint without assuming his job is guaranteed for the rest of the year.