Data story · September 1, 2026 · Updated September 2 · 8 min read
ADP vs Reality, 2015 to 2025
Every August, the whole internet agrees on who should be picked first in fantasy football. We checked eleven seasons of those picks. The crowd turns out to be right about talent and blind to the one thing that actually sinks it.
Every fantasy draft starts the same way. Everyone has the same list open on their phone, and the list says who to take.
That list is average draft position, or ADP: the average spot a player goes across the major draft platforms, as compiled by FantasyPros into one consensus number. Think of it as the market price.
We lined up eleven seasons of it, 2015 to 2025, against where every player actually finished. Three things jumped out.
The first pick almost never pays off. He finished first at his position once in eleven years, and every miss was an injury.
The crowd is right about talent and blind to health. When the consensus No. 1 at a position stayed on the field, he finished top 12 in 31 of 32 seasons. When he got hurt, one of 12.
"Running backs are safer early" is backwards. In round one, receivers hit more and bust less. After that, the positions are close.
Shorthand: "RB1" is the running back drafted first. "Top 12" means good enough to start every week in a 12-team league. Every chart has its full table behind a "Show the data" toggle. Method and sources are at the bottom.
The first overall pick finished outside the top 12 at his position in six of eleven seasons
Where the player drafted first overall finished at his position by total points, 2015 to 2025. Dots inside the shaded band were good enough to start every week.
Missed four or more games that season
Finish is rank at the player's position by total season points among all NFL players, not points per game. Source: FantasyPros consensus PPR ADP, nflverse weekly stats.
Show the data ↓Hide the data ↑
| Year | Pick 1.01 | Finish | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson | RB2 | 16 of 16 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown | WR1 | 15 of 16 |
| 2017 | David Johnson | RB106 | 1 of 16 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley | RB3 | 14 of 16 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley | RB10 | 13 of 16 |
| 2020 | Christian McCaffrey | RB54 | 3 of 16 |
| 2021 | Christian McCaffrey | RB38 | 7 of 17 |
| 2022 | Jonathan Taylor | RB33 | 11 of 17 |
| 2023 | Justin Jefferson | WR33 | 10 of 17 |
| 2024 | Christian McCaffrey | RB68 | 4 of 17 |
| 2025 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR4 | 16 of 17 |
The player the whole world agreed to take first finished first at his position once in eleven years.
Why does this keep happening? The first pick is not a bad player. He is usually the best player. But the price you pay for him assumes nothing goes wrong, and something goes wrong for the first pick exactly as often as it does for the 150th.
Look at the red crosses. Every one of the six bust seasons was cut short by injury. David Johnson played one game in 2017. Christian McCaffrey played three games in 2020, seven in 2021, and four in 2024. Jonathan Taylor missed six games in 2022 and Justin Jefferson missed seven in 2023. Not one first pick played a full season and simply played badly.
That is the whole bet in one sentence. When the first pick stays healthy, he finishes as a weekly starter every time and usually top three. He just stays healthy about half the time.
The first quarterback drafted finished as the QB1 once in eleven years. The first tight end did it four times
Where the player drafted first at each position finished that season. Green means he finished top three. Grey means top twelve. Red means worse than that.
The first tight end drafted finished first in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2022. The first running back finished top three five times, and 30th or worse five times. Cells marked with a cross are seasons where the player missed four or more games.
Show the data ↓Hide the data ↑
| Year | RB1 | Finish | WR1 | Finish | QB1 | Finish | TE1 | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson | RB2 | Antonio Brown | WR1 | Andrew Luck | QB28 | Rob Gronkowski | TE1 |
| 2016 | David Johnson | RB1 | Antonio Brown | WR1 | Cam Newton | QB17 | Rob Gronkowski | TE27 |
| 2017 | David Johnson | RB106 | Antonio Brown | WR1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB29 | Rob Gronkowski | TE2 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley | RB3 | Antonio Brown | WR5 | Aaron Rodgers | QB6 | Rob Gronkowski | TE11 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley | RB10 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR5 | Patrick Mahomes | QB7 | Travis Kelce | TE1 |
| 2020 | Christian McCaffrey | RB54 | Michael Thomas | WR95 | Patrick Mahomes | QB4 | Travis Kelce | TE1 |
| 2021 | Christian McCaffrey | RB38 | Davante Adams | WR2 | Patrick Mahomes II | QB4 | Travis Kelce | TE2 |
| 2022 | Jonathan Taylor | RB33 | Cooper Kupp | WR23 | Josh Allen | QB2 | Travis Kelce | TE1 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey | RB1 | Justin Jefferson | WR33 | Patrick Mahomes II | QB8 | Travis Kelce | TE3 |
| 2024 | Christian McCaffrey | RB68 | CeeDee Lamb | WR8 | Josh Allen | QB2 | Travis Kelce | TE5 |
| 2025 | Bijan Robinson | RB2 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR4 | Josh Allen | QB1 | Brock Bowers | TE11 |
Read the quarterback row. Eleven seasons, and the quarterback drafted first finished first once, Josh Allen in 2025. He finished top six about half the time. Three years he finished outside the top 12, which in a 12-team league means somebody's backup outscored the most expensive quarterback on the board. You pay a first-place price for a coin flip at top six.
Now sort those 44 seasons a different way. Ignore the position and ask one question: did the player stay on the field?
The crowd, it turns out, is very good at picking talent. It is terrible at pricing health.
When the consensus No. 1 stayed healthy, he finished top 12 in 31 of 32 seasons. When he got hurt, one of 12
Every player drafted first at his position, 2015 to 2025, split by whether he missed four or more games. Each dot is one season.
Played most of the season(32 seasons)
31 of 32 finished top 12
Missed four or more games(12 seasons)
1 of 12 finished top 12
Healthy means he missed three games or fewer. The one healthy miss was Cam Newton in 2016 (QB17). The one injured hit was Brock Bowers in 2025 (TE11 in 12 games).
That is the whole story of the top of the draft. The player the crowd picks first is almost always as good as advertised. The bust is not a talent miss. It is a body.
Keep that in mind for everything below. The hit rates and bust rates count an injured season as a bust, because your team lost those games either way. But at the top of the board, the thing you are actually betting on is not whether a player is good. It is whether he stays on the field.
The "running backs are safer" rule is backwards, at least in round one
Here is a piece of advice you have probably heard: take running backs early, because they are scarce and they are the safe pick. We tested it.
For every running back and receiver drafted in rounds one through ten, we asked two questions. Did he finish as a weekly starter, meaning top 12 at his position? Or did he bust, meaning he finished outside the top 36 and was barely worth keeping on a roster?
Round one receivers hit more and bust less than round one running backs. After that, the two positions are close
Left: share of players drafted in each round who finished top 12 at their position. Right: share who finished outside the top 36. Running backs in orange, receivers in green, 2015 to 2025.
How often did a pick become a weekly starter?
Share of RBs and WRs drafted in each round who finished top 12 at their position
How often did a pick bust completely?
Share who finished outside the top 36, meaning barely worth a roster spot
Running backsWide receivers
12-team PPR. n per round, RB/WR: 71/51, 55/54, 41/60, 51/58, 29/50, 51/59, 38/46, 38/45, 36/51, 43/35. Rounds past three have small samples and the lines bounce accordingly.
Show the data ↓Hide the data ↑
| Round | Pos | n | Top-12 rate | Top-24 rate | Bust rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | 71 | 57.7% | 74.6% | 16.9% |
| 1 | WR | 51 | 62.7% | 78.4% | 13.7% |
| 2 | RB | 55 | 47.3% | 72.7% | 14.5% |
| 2 | WR | 54 | 46.3% | 57.4% | 24.1% |
| 3 | RB | 41 | 39.0% | 70.7% | 22.0% |
| 3 | WR | 60 | 26.7% | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| 4 | RB | 51 | 23.5% | 58.8% | 29.4% |
| 4 | WR | 58 | 22.4% | 53.4% | 32.8% |
| 5 | RB | 29 | 6.9% | 27.6% | 41.4% |
| 5 | WR | 50 | 26.0% | 46.0% | 40.0% |
| 6 | RB | 51 | 13.7% | 39.2% | 41.2% |
| 6 | WR | 59 | 16.9% | 33.9% | 55.9% |
| 7 | RB | 38 | 10.5% | 39.5% | 42.1% |
| 7 | WR | 46 | 8.7% | 15.2% | 60.9% |
| 8 | RB | 38 | 5.3% | 15.8% | 63.2% |
| 8 | WR | 45 | 6.7% | 26.7% | 53.3% |
| 9 | RB | 36 | 11.1% | 22.2% | 61.1% |
| 9 | WR | 51 | 5.9% | 13.7% | 64.7% |
| 10 | RB | 43 | 14.0% | 30.2% | 55.8% |
| 10 | WR | 35 | 5.7% | 20.0% | 71.4% |
In round one the receivers win. About 63 percent of first-round receivers finished as weekly starters, against 58 percent of running backs, and receivers busted less often too, 14 percent to 17.
After that the old advice does not get much help either. Round two is a wash, 47 percent to 46. Round three tilts back toward running backs, 39 to 27, on a small sample. By round five, both positions bust about 40 percent of the time, and from round seven on the draft is mostly guesswork whichever position you take.
The honest summary is that position is a weak signal after round one. Take the player.
Half of the "sure things" fall out every year
One last way to look at the same problem. Before each season, take the twelve running backs the crowd ranked highest. At the end of the season, count how many of them actually finished in the top twelve. Do the same for receivers, and for the top six quarterbacks and tight ends.
About half of the preseason top 12 turns over every single year
Number of players ranked top 12 before the season (top 6 for QB and TE) who actually finished top 12 (top 6) that season.
Running backs
Wide receivers
Quarterbacks
Tight ends
Eleven-year averages: RB 6.5 of 12, WR 5.8 of 12, QB 2.3 of 6, TE 2.9 of 6.
Show the data ↓Hide the data ↑
| Year | RB (of 12) | WR (of 12) | QB (of 6) | TE (of 6) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| 2016 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 2017 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2018 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2020 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 2021 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 2022 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| 2023 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 |
| 2025 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| 11-yr avg | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
The answer is about half. In an average year, six or seven of the twelve consensus top running backs held their spot, and about six of the twelve receivers. Quarterbacks and tight ends were worse. In 2019 and again in 2025, only one of the six top-ranked quarterbacks finished in the top six.
The point is not that rankings are useless. Half is a lot better than random. The point is that a preseason top-12 ranking is a coin flip, and most drafts treat it like a guarantee.
The picks nobody saw coming
If half the top tier falls out every year, someone has to replace them. These are the fifteen players drafted between round eight and round fifteen who climbed the furthest, ranked by how many spots they beat their draft position by.
Fifteen players drafted in round eight or later who finished as weekly starters
Each bar runs from where the player was drafted at his position to where he finished. The number is how many spots he gained.
Show the data ↓Hide the data ↑
| Player | Pos | Year | ADP round | ADP rank | Finish rank | Beat ADP by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | RB | 2018 | 15 | 57 | 6 | 51 |
| Jordan Howard | RB | 2016 | 15 | 59 | 10 | 49 |
| Nico Collins | WR | 2023 | 15 | 61 | 12 | 49 |
| Doug Baldwin | WR | 2015 | 14 | 58 | 10 | 48 |
| DeAngelo Williams | RB | 2015 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 47 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | 2016 | 11 | 51 | 7 | 44 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2024 | 10 | 48 | 4 | 44 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 2024 | 12 | 55 | 12 | 43 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 2020 | 10 | 47 | 6 | 41 |
| Danny Woodhead | RB | 2015 | 10 | 43 | 3 | 40 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | 2023 | 13 | 44 | 5 | 39 |
| David Johnson | RB | 2015 | 11 | 45 | 7 | 38 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | 2017 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 37 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | 2015 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 36 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | 2017 | 12 | 47 | 11 | 36 |
Some of these names are famous now. Justin Jefferson was the 47th receiver drafted as a rookie in 2020 and finished sixth. Brian Thomas Jr. went 48th among receivers in 2024 and finished fourth. Both were sitting there in round ten while the room argued about who to take in round one.
The 2015 list is the fun one. Devonta Freeman was the 37th running back drafted and finished as the number one running back in football. Nobody was taking him inside round nine.
What to do with this
None of this means you should throw away the rankings. It means you should treat them as prices, not predictions. Four things the data supports:
- 01
The first pick is a health bet, not a talent bet. When he stays healthy he delivers almost every time. He stays healthy about half the time, and the price assumes he will. If you can trade down, do it. If you cannot, at least know what you are actually betting on.
- 02
In round one, lean receiver. First-round receivers became weekly starters more often and busted less often than first-round running backs. After round one the positions are close enough that you should take the player, not the position.
- 03
Do not pay the QB1 price. The first quarterback drafted finished first once in eleven years and finished top six about half the time. Whoever you like at quarterback, you are paying a first-place price for a coin flip.
- 04
Expect half your sure things to miss. Draft as if six of your top twelve will not finish top twelve, because on average that is exactly what happens. The players who replace them are in the rounds most people stop paying attention.
Want to see how your own roster stacks up against these odds? Rate My Team grades your actual team against this kind of history. For where the tiers drop off in this year's draft specifically, see Draft Tiers.
Method and caveats
Draft position is FantasyPros consensus PPR ADP, which averages where players were being drafted across the major platforms: ESPN, Sleeper, CBS, NFL.com, RTSports and Fantrax in recent years, plus MyFantasyLeague and FantasyFootballCalculator in earlier ones. We used Internet Archive snapshots of the FantasyPros ADP page taken in the last week of August or the first days of September each season, so the numbers are what drafters actually saw before Week 1. PPR means a player earns a point for every catch.
One exception: no PPR snapshot exists for late August 2017, so 2017 uses the standard-scoring consensus captured on August 30, 2017. Its first overall pick and first quarterback match every other source for that year.
Finishes come from nflverse regular season weekly stats, added up into season totals. A player's finish is his rank by total points among every NFL player at his position that season, not just the drafted ones. Players are matched across the two sources by name and position. Two top-36 names did not match and were dropped: Jordan Matthews in 2015 and Le'Veon Bell in 2018, who sat out the year.
Everything here is season totals, not points per game. A player who missed eight games ranks low even if he was elite when healthy. That is intentional. A pick who missed half the year missed half the year for you too, whatever the reason.
Rounds assume a 12-team draft, so round two is picks 13 through 24. Half-PPR, superflex, and other league sizes will shift the running back and quarterback numbers in particular.
Source check. An earlier version of this post used FantasyFootballCalculator mock-draft ADP alone. Against the FantasyPros consensus, the first overall pick is identical in all eleven years and the first quarterback drafted is identical in ten of eleven. The exception is 2025, where the consensus had Josh Allen a fraction ahead of Lamar Jackson and the mock drafts had it the other way, and Allen finished QB1. The round-by-round and slot numbers moved with the source, and the version you are reading is the consensus one.