Experts vs. Vegas

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Expert source files are checked with a one-hour cache; new rankings appear when Boris Chen publishes an update. Sportsbook collection and estimate recomputation are scheduled every six hours. Source timestamps show the oldest data currently used in the expert comparison. A page check does not mean the underlying sources changed, and this is not a streaming odds terminal. Older sources and unavailable feeds are flagged.

Each row compares the same player’s expert and Vegas ranks within their position. The disagreement bar shows only the difference between those ranks. Orange extends left when Vegas ranks the player higher; purple extends right when Experts rank the player higher. Longer bars mean bigger differences, on one shared scale within the selected position. Hover or select a player to see the exact rank difference. A dot at zero means the two sources agree. The default sort averages each player’s Expert and Vegas position ranks, lowest first. This is not an overall ranking across positions. Search and direction filters preserve the bar scale; changing position uses that position’s full range.

Projected points are our estimate from sportsbook props in your selected scoring format. Expert ranks come from Boris Chen. We do not display expert point projections. Sort by either rank, points, or the biggest rank differences. Filter by position or search for a player; filtering does not recalculate ranks. Select a player for the source rankings and sportsbook lines.

We read Boris Chen’s public weekly position files, built from FantasyPros consensus rankings. RB, WR and TE use the selected format’s Standard, Half PPR or Full PPR files; QB uses the shared quarterback file. Expert tiers, rankings and Vegas totals all follow the scoring selector. Boris Chen aggregates the rankings and calculates tiers; these are not his personal player picks. The saved files contain aggregate ranks, not individual contributor names or an expert count. We cannot verify the exact panel for this snapshot.

We check each file’s publication timestamp against this week’s Tuesday-to-Monday window, require the weekly matchup column, and match each player’s opponent and home/away status against our season-and-week schedule. Stale, draft or mismatched files are excluded. The source is checked hourly. Each player’s detail shows the source timestamp, published position rank, average expert rank and tier.

Experts vs. Vegas includes players regardless of Reddit discussion. Both sides rank the same matched players at each position; expert ordering uses the average expert rank, with tied values receiving an average rank. That comparison rank can differ from the published source rank shown in the player details. Tiers provide context; they do not create artificial ordering within a tier.

Reddit: one detected player mention per collected post or comment in the trailing seven days. Machine-scored positive and negative mentions get weight min(3, 1 + log10(1 + max(0, upvotes))). The score is 100 × (positive weight − negative weight) / (positive weight + negative weight + 10). The extra 10 pulls small samples toward zero. Neutral and unscored mentions are reported separately. Upvotes are snapshots at collection time, not final totals. Reddit discussion appears only as optional context in player details; it does not determine either comparison rank.

QB, RB, WR and TE players with verified weekly expert data and usable pre-kickoff Vegas estimates. Each position requires at least five matched players. Both sides rank the same matched sample, with ties receiving their average rank. The table includes every matching player.

The inputs are sportsbook quotes. The Sportsbooks tab shows the posted yardage and reception lines, plus Over/Under or anytime-touchdown prices, separately for DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM where supplied. We collect them through The Odds API; this is a data-provider feed, not a direct integration with each book. Values in that tab are not averaged or adjusted.

The fantasy-point total is our calculation. The comparison ranks a fantasy-point estimate derived from those props using the Vegas tool's methodology. It is not a fantasy total published by a sportsbook. Converting betting lines and touchdown prices into expected fantasy points requires assumptions; an over/under is not a statistical mean. Core prop coverage is required, but some secondary scoring components can still be missing.

Quotes and projections must be no more than seven days old and before kickoff. Each quote shows its collection time; older than 48 hours is flagged. The raw quote tab can contain a newer collection than the last computed fantasy-point estimate. Neither should be described as a currently executable betting price.

A gap means the two sources order a player differently within the same matched position group. It is not a buy/sell signal or a validated predictive edge. News, injury updates, source timing and the assumptions used to convert sportsbook props into fantasy points can explain differences.