2026 / WEEK 3
Experts vs. Vegas
The Week 3 results are in.
See how the saved pregame rankings held up.
Which experts?
The expert column is FantasyPros consensus via Boris Chen. Boris Chen aggregates the rankings and calculates tiers; these aren’t his personal picks or rankings created by Squawk.
The saved weekly ranking files don’t list the contributing analysts or an expert count, so we can’t reliably name the individual experts behind this snapshot.
The recap grades this consensus as a whole. It does not grade individual analysts.
Pregame rankings locked · Saved Sep 28, 2:23 PM ET
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Comparison ranks are among the players with both sources, not the full expert rankings. Published expert ranks appear under each name. 3 more players are listed below with no matching Vegas estimate.
| Experts | Vegas | Rank | Vegas higher ←0→ Experts higher | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | #1 | 23.4 | 1 | ||
| #2 | #2 | 21.5 | 2 | ||
| #3 | #4 | 18.7 | 3.5 | ||
| #4 | #3 | 18.9 | 3.5 | ||
| #5 | #8.5 | 17.8 | 6.75 | ||
| #6 | #8.5 | 17.8 | 7.25 | ||
| #7 | #7 | 17.9 | 7 | ||
| #8 | #13.5 | 16.3 | 10.75 | ||
| #9 | #10 | 17.6 | 9.5 | ||
| #10 | #5 | 18.4 | 7.5 | ||
| #11 | #17.5 | 15.8 | 14.25 | ||
| #12 | #6 | 18.0 | 9 | ||
| #13 | #11 | 16.8 | 12 | ||
| #14 | #12 | 16.4 | 13 | ||
| #16 | #16 | 15.9 | 16 | ||
| #15 | #13.5 | 16.3 | 14.25 | ||
| #17 | #20 | 15.1 | 18.5 | ||
| #18 | #19 | 15.4 | 18.5 | ||
| #19 | #25 | 13.6 | 22 | ||
| #21 | #15 | 16.2 | 18 | ||
| #20 | #17.5 | 15.8 | 18.75 | ||
| Sam DarnoldQBPublished #21at WAS | No matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB21. | ||||
| #22 | #21 | 15.0 | 21.5 | ||
| #23 | #24 | 13.8 | 23.5 | ||
| Drew LockQBPublished #24at WAS | No matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB24. | ||||
| #24 | #23 | 14.2 | 23.5 | ||
| #25 | #22 | 14.3 | 23.5 | ||
| Deshaun WatsonQBPublished #26vs. CAR | No matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB26. | ||||
Default order follows the published expert rankings. Average-rank sorting uses the matched comparison ranks. These are positional ranks, not an overall cross-position ranking. Bars show only the rank difference: orange left means Vegas ranks higher; purple right means Experts rank higher. A dot at zero means the same rank. Every row uses the same scale within the selected position. Search and direction filters preserve that scale. Projected points are our Standard estimates from sportsbook props. Comparison ranks reorder only the matched players; they are not the published expert ranks. Published ranks come from Boris Chen and appear under each name. No expert point projections are displayed.
Methodology ↗Standard rankings loaded
Saved pregame market data: Sep 24, 2:23 PM ET – Sep 28, 2:23 PM ET. Each player’s inputs were saved before kickoff; source update times differ.
Methodology ↗141 players comparedWhy this many?
Players with both sources are compared. Other verified expert-ranked players remain listed with their published rank and no Vegas estimate.
- 155Verified weekly expert players
- 141Qualifying sportsbook estimates
- 141Matched on both sides
We require a matching position, this week’s opponent, a current source timestamp, core sportsbook markets and a future kickoff at capture. Each position needs at least five matches. Missing props or rankings reduce the overlap.
2026 · WEEK 3 RECAP · STANDARD
Who had it right?
The expert consensus finished closer. 141 players scored against their saved pregame rankings.
Average distance from actual position rank; lower is better. Both sides face the same players within each position. Tied fantasy scores share an average rank. This is one week’s result, not evidence of a lasting edge.
Confirmed inactives stay in the original comparison at zero: Adonai Mitchell. Their presence reflects the saved board’s injury freshness; source updates were not simultaneous. Excluding them and re-ranking the remaining 140 players gives Experts 10.11 ranks off and Vegas 10.96 ranks off.
| Position | Winner | ExpertsAvg. ranks off | VegasAvg. ranks off |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB25 players | Experts | 7.76 | 8.48 |
| RB33 players | Vegas | 7.00 | 6.45 |
| WR59 players | Experts | 14.37 | 15.85 |
| TE24 players | Experts | 7.42 | 8.71 |
See all 141 player results
| Player | Pos. | Actual points | Actual rank | Expert rank | Vegas rank | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB | 31.28 | 1 | 3 | 4 | Experts |
| Geno Smith | QB | 26.04 | 2 | 18 | 19 | Experts |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 25.6 | 3 | 22 | 21 | Vegas |
| Bo Nix | QB | 24.14 | 4 | 16 | 16 | Tie |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 23.8 | 5 | 10 | 5 | Vegas |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 22.68 | 6 | 24 | 23 | Vegas |
| Joe Burrow | QB | 22.58 | 7 | 8 | 13.5 | Experts |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 22.22 | 8 | 23 | 24 | Experts |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 20.9 | 9 | 17 | 20 | Experts |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 20.44 | 10 | 2 | 2 | Tie |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 19.78 | 11 | 9 | 10 | Vegas |
| Jared Goff | QB | 19.36 | 12 | 7 | 7 | Tie |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 18.94 | 13 | 6 | 8.5 | Vegas |
| Jordan Love | QB | 18.48 | 14 | 11 | 17.5 | Experts |
| Josh Allen | QB | 16.46 | 15 | 1 | 1 | Tie |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 15.94 | 16 | 5 | 8.5 | Vegas |
| Bryce Young | QB | 13.64 | 17 | 15 | 13.5 | Experts |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 12.74 | 18 | 13 | 11 | Experts |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 12.62 | 19 | 4 | 3 | Experts |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 11.68 | 20 | 20 | 17.5 | Experts |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 11.28 | 21 | 21 | 15 | Experts |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 10.42 | 22 | 14 | 12 | Experts |
| Malik Willis | QB | 10 | 23 | 19 | 25 | Vegas |
| Daniel Jones | QB | 7.9 | 24 | 25 | 22 | Experts |
| Drake Maye | QB | 3.76 | 25 | 12 | 6 | Experts |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 34.4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Tie |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 33.3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Experts |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 20.9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | Tie |
| James Cook | RB | 19.4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | Experts |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 19.3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Vegas |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 17.6 | 6.5 | 5 | 5 | Tie |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 17.6 | 6.5 | 21 | 15 | Vegas |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | 16.9 | 8 | 25 | 27 | Experts |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 16.3 | 9 | 11 | 12 | Experts |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 15.8 | 10 | 14 | 19 | Experts |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 15 | 11 | 22 | 26 | Experts |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11 | 12 | 18 | 11 | Vegas |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | 10 | 13 | 20 | 21 | Experts |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 9.6 | 14 | 30 | 24 | Vegas |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 9.3 | 15 | 8 | 8 | Tie |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 9.2 | 16 | 23 | 20 | Vegas |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 8.8 | 17 | 17 | 17 | Tie |
| Woody Marks | RB | 8.1 | 18 | 33 | 32 | Vegas |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 8 | 19 | 9 | 10 | Vegas |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 7.9 | 20 | 24 | 18 | Vegas |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 7.2 | 21 | 7 | 6 | Experts |
| Travis Etienne | RB | 7 | 22 | 26 | 28 | Experts |
| Chase Brown | RB | 6.9 | 23 | 10 | 9 | Experts |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 5.8 | 24 | 19 | 22 | Vegas |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 5.6 | 25 | 13 | 16 | Vegas |
| Breece Hall | RB | 5.5 | 26 | 12 | 13.5 | Vegas |
| David Montgomery | RB | 4.8 | 27 | 16 | 23 | Vegas |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.8 | 28 | 29 | 29 | Tie |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 3.1 | 29 | 31 | 31 | Tie |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 2.9 | 30 | 27 | 30 | Vegas |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 1.8 | 31 | 32 | 33 | Experts |
| De'Von Achane | RB | 1.7 | 32 | 15 | 13.5 | Experts |
| Jadarian Price | RB | 0.2 | 33 | 28 | 25 | Experts |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 25.36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Tie |
| Drake London | WR | 19.4 | 2 | 13 | 13 | Tie |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 16.7 | 3 | 12 | 9 | Vegas |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 16 | 4 | 22 | 21.5 | Vegas |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 15.8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | Vegas |
| Christian Watson | WR | 15.6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | Tie |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 15.4 | 7 | 24 | 28 | Experts |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 15 | 9 | 37 | 43.5 | Experts |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 15 | 9 | 58 | 59 | Experts |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 15 | 9 | 17 | 21.5 | Experts |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 14.9 | 11 | 31 | 32.5 | Experts |
| Davante Adams | WR | 13.7 | 12.5 | 7 | 5.5 | Experts |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 13.7 | 12.5 | 28 | 43.5 | Experts |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 13.2 | 14 | 4 | 3 | Experts |
| Luther Burden | WR | 12.8 | 15 | 35 | 49 | Experts |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 12.4 | 16 | 47 | 46 | Vegas |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 12.3 | 17 | 55 | 52.5 | Vegas |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 11.7 | 18 | 54 | 54.5 | Experts |
| Chris Olave | WR | 10.7 | 19 | 6 | 5.5 | Experts |
| Parker Washington | WR | 10 | 20 | 11 | 10 | Experts |
| Mike Evans | WR | 9.4 | 21 | 15 | 15 | Tie |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 9.1 | 22 | 26.5 | 23.5 | Vegas |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 8.8 | 23 | 20 | 16 | Experts |
| George Pickens | WR | 8.2 | 24 | 9 | 12 | Vegas |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 7.9 | 25 | 2 | 2 | Tie |
| Josh Downs | WR | 7.7 | 26 | 32 | 27 | Vegas |
| Tre' Harris | WR | 7.6 | 27 | 56 | 54.5 | Vegas |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 6.6 | 28 | 19 | 18 | Experts |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 6.5 | 29 | 10 | 11 | Vegas |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6.2 | 30 | 23 | 25 | Vegas |
| Denzel Boston | WR | 6.1 | 31.5 | 43 | 31 | Vegas |
| Malik Washington | WR | 6.1 | 31.5 | 53 | 47.5 | Vegas |
| Carnell Tate | WR | 5.8 | 33 | 40 | 47.5 | Experts |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 4.9 | 34.5 | 21 | 20 | Experts |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 4.9 | 34.5 | 29 | 35.5 | Vegas |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 4.6 | 36 | 39 | 43.5 | Experts |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 4.4 | 37.5 | 16 | 18 | Vegas |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 4.4 | 37.5 | 42 | 58 | Experts |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 4.3 | 39 | 44 | 37 | Vegas |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | 4 | 40.5 | 51 | 52.5 | Experts |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 4 | 40.5 | 38 | 40 | Vegas |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | 3.9 | 42 | 33 | 29 | Experts |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | 3.7 | 43 | 25 | 23.5 | Experts |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 3.3 | 44 | 34 | 51 | Vegas |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 3.2 | 45.5 | 36 | 35.5 | Experts |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 3.2 | 45.5 | 5 | 7 | Vegas |
| Makai Lemon | WR | 2.9 | 47 | 57 | 57 | Tie |
| Malik Nabers | WR | 2.6 | 48 | 14 | 26 | Vegas |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 2.5 | 49 | 41 | 43.5 | Vegas |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | 2.2 | 50 | 59 | 56 | Vegas |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | 2.1 | 51 | 49 | 40 | Experts |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 2 | 52 | 45 | 34 | Experts |
| Jalen Coker | WR | 1.8 | 53 | 26.5 | 18 | Experts |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 1.7 | 54 | 18 | 14 | Experts |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 1.4 | 55 | 52 | 50 | Experts |
| KC Concepcion | WR | 0.9 | 56 | 50 | 38 | Experts |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 0.8 | 57 | 46 | 40 | Experts |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 0.6 | 58 | 48 | 30 | Experts |
| Adonai Mitchell · Inactive | WR | 0 | 59 | 30 | 32.5 | Vegas |
| George Kittle | TE | 20.2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | Experts |
| Brock Bowers | TE | 17.6 | 2 | 5 | 10 | Experts |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 17.1 | 3 | 14 | 14.5 | Experts |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 15.3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | Experts |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 11.9 | 5 | 7 | 2 | Experts |
| Trey McBride | TE | 7.5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Experts |
| AJ Barner | TE | 6.9 | 7 | 21 | 23 | Experts |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 6.3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | Experts |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 5.7 | 9 | 8 | 11 | Experts |
| Darren Waller | TE | 5.1 | 10 | 24 | 24 | Tie |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 4.4 | 11 | 4 | 7 | Vegas |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 3.2 | 12 | 22 | 19.5 | Vegas |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 3.1 | 13.5 | 15 | 22 | Experts |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 3.1 | 13.5 | 18 | 19.5 | Experts |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 3 | 15 | 12 | 5 | Experts |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.6 | 16 | 3 | 7 | Vegas |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 2.4 | 17 | 9 | 4 | Experts |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 1.8 | 18 | 1 | 3 | Vegas |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | 1.3 | 19 | 10 | 13 | Vegas |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1.1 | 20 | 23 | 17.5 | Vegas |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE | 0.9 | 21 | 11 | 9 | Experts |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 0.5 | 22.5 | 17 | 12 | Experts |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 0.5 | 22.5 | 19 | 17.5 | Experts |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 0 | 24 | 16 | 14.5 | Experts |
Scoring and result sources
Final game status: ESPN. Results: Sleeper’s raw Week 3 stats, checked Sep 30, 2026. Scoring: 1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing TD, −2 per interception; 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 per rushing/receiving or return TD, −2 per lost fumble, 2 per two-point conversion, and 0 per reception. No yardage bonuses. Zero-point results require confirmed participation or a sourced inactive report; absent stats are never assumed to be zero.
Inactive evidence: Adonai Mitchell.
Latest saved prediction archive saved Sep 28, 2:23 PM EDT. Each player’s inputs were saved before their own kickoff. Expert and sportsbook sources can have different update times. Expert and Vegas ranks cover this matched group, not every NFL player. Which experts?
WEEK 3 COMPARISON
The same players. Two rankings.
Expert consensus from FantasyPros via Boris Chen. Vegas fantasy estimates calculated from posted sportsbook props.
Both sides rank the same matched players within each position. We verify the expert file’s week, scoring format and opponent, and require usable pregame sportsbook coverage. Published source ranks and timestamps appear in each player’s details. The source files don’t identify individual contributing analysts.
Vegas points are our estimates, not fantasy totals published by sportsbooks. Sources update on their collection schedules; gaps and delays can reduce coverage. This link always refers to 2026 Week 3. Unplayed games keep updating as props arrive. Each player’s saved estimates stop updating at their kickoff; newer weeks never replace this edition. Players without qualifying Vegas data stay visible with their published expert rank.
See who had Week 1 right →