2026 / WEEK 3

Experts vs. Vegas

The Week 3 results are in.
See how the saved pregame rankings held up.

144 players comparedHalf PPRFantasyPros via Boris Chen ↗Week 3 recap ↓
Which experts?

The expert column is FantasyPros consensus via Boris Chen. Boris Chen aggregates the rankings and calculates tiers; these aren’t his personal picks or rankings created by Squawk.

The saved weekly ranking files don’t list the contributing analysts or an expert count, so we can’t reliably name the individual experts behind this snapshot.

The recap grades this consensus as a whole. It does not grade individual analysts.

Pregame rankings locked · Saved Sep 28, 2:23 PM ET

YOUR TEAM. YOUR NEXT MOVE.

Two rankings. One lineup spot.

Text an AI fantasy assistant your options. Get a recommendation with the reasoning, then ask a follow-up.

7 days, up to 10 alert texts and 12 advice replies. The allowances are separate. No card or automatic charge.

28 players / Half PPR

Comparison ranks are among the players with both sources, not the full expert rankings. Published expert ranks appear under each name. 3 more players are listed below with no matching Vegas estimate.

ExpertsVegasRank
Vegas higher ←0→ Experts higher
#1#123.41
#2#221.52
#3#418.73.5
#4#318.93.5
#5#8.517.86.75
#6#8.517.87.25
#7#717.97
#8#13.516.310.75
#9#1017.69.5
#10#518.47.5
#11#17.515.814.25
#12#618.09
#13#1116.812
#14#1216.413
#16#1615.916
#15#13.516.314.25
#17#2015.118.5
#18#1915.418.5
#19#2513.622
#21#1516.218
#20#17.515.818.75
Sam DarnoldQBPublished #21at WASNo matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB21.
#22#2115.021.5
#23#2413.823.5
Drew LockQBPublished #24at WASNo matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB24.
#24#2314.223.5
#25#2214.323.5
Deshaun WatsonQBPublished #26vs. CARNo matching Vegas estimate yet. Expert rank: QB26.
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Default order follows the published expert rankings. Average-rank sorting uses the matched comparison ranks. These are positional ranks, not an overall cross-position ranking. Bars show only the rank difference: orange left means Vegas ranks higher; purple right means Experts rank higher. A dot at zero means the same rank. Every row uses the same scale within the selected position. Search and direction filters preserve that scale. Projected points are our Half PPR estimates from sportsbook props. Comparison ranks reorder only the matched players; they are not the published expert ranks. Published ranks come from Boris Chen and appear under each name. No expert point projections are displayed.

Methodology ↗

Half PPR rankings loaded

THE PLAYER PERSPECTIVE
PLAYER DETAIL
SD

WAS / WR

Stefon Diggs

Experts rank higher
EXPERTSWR32
/
VEGASWR50

18 ranks apart · 59 matched WRs

THE EXPERT VIEW

Tier 6vs. SEA
Published position rank
WR31
Average expert rank
32.70
Updated Sep 24, 9:00 AM ETBoris Chen · FantasyPros data ↗
Reddit context100% scored

26 positive51 neutral15 negative

Mentions in 7 days
92
Discussion threads
52
24h mention change
+5
Weighted sentiment
+22.6 / 100
Our prop-derived estimate↗

6.4½ PPR pts

3 sportsbooks · Week 3

YOUR TEAM. YOUR NEXT MOVE.

Starting Stefon Diggs?

Text an AI fantasy assistant your options. Get a recommendation with the reasoning, then ask a follow-up.

7 days, up to 10 alert texts and 12 advice replies. The allowances are separate. No card or automatic charge.

Saved pregame market data: Sep 24, 2:23 PM ET – Sep 28, 2:23 PM ET. Each player’s inputs were saved before kickoff; source update times differ.

Methodology ↗
144 players comparedWhy this many?

Players with both sources are compared. Other verified expert-ranked players remain listed with their published rank and no Vegas estimate.

  1. 155Verified weekly expert players
  2. 144Qualifying sportsbook estimates
  3. 144Matched on both sides

We require a matching position, this week’s opponent, a current source timestamp, core sportsbook markets and a future kickoff at capture. Each position needs at least five matches. Missing props or rankings reduce the overlap.

2026 · WEEK 3 RECAP · HALF PPR

Who had it right?

Link to this recap ↗

The expert consensus finished closer. 144 players scored against their saved pregame rankings.

Experts · FantasyPros via Boris Chen10.49 ranks offVegas · our sportsbook-based estimates11.15 ranks off

Average distance from actual position rank; lower is better. Both sides face the same players within each position. Tied fantasy scores share an average rank. This is one week’s result, not evidence of a lasting edge.

Confirmed inactives stay in the original comparison at zero: Adonai Mitchell. Their presence reflects the saved board’s injury freshness; source updates were not simultaneous. Excluding them and re-ranking the remaining 143 players gives Experts 10.32 ranks off and Vegas 10.97 ranks off.

Who won each position? · Half PPR
PositionWinnerExpertsAvg. ranks offVegasAvg. ranks off
QB25 playersExperts7.768.48
RB35 playersVegas7.837.20
WR59 playersExperts14.5615.51
TE25 playersExperts7.369.04
See all 144 player results
Actual points and ranks within the matched position group · Half PPR
PlayerPos.Actual pointsActual rankExpert rankVegas rankCloser
Brock PurdyQB31.28134Experts
Geno SmithQB26.0421819Experts
Jacoby BrissettQB25.632221Vegas
Bo NixQB24.1441616Tie
Tyler ShoughQB23.85105Vegas
Aaron RodgersQB22.6862423Vegas
Joe BurrowQB22.587813.5Experts
Kirk CousinsQB22.2282324Experts
Matthew StaffordQB20.991720Experts
Lamar JacksonQB20.441022Tie
Trevor LawrenceQB19.7811910Vegas
Jared GoffQB19.361277Tie
Dak PrescottQB18.941368.5Vegas
Jordan LoveQB18.48141117.5Experts
Josh AllenQB16.961511Tie
Patrick MahomesQB15.941658.5Vegas
Bryce YoungQB13.64171513.5Experts
Justin HerbertQB12.74181311Experts
Jalen HurtsQB12.621943Experts
C.J. StroudQB11.68202017.5Experts
Baker MayfieldQB11.28212115Experts
Kyler MurrayQB10.42221412Experts
Malik WillisQB10231925Vegas
Daniel JonesQB7.9242522Experts
Drake MayeQB3.7625126Experts
Jahmyr GibbsRB37.9111Tie
Bijan RobinsonRB34.3232Vegas
Derrick HenryRB21.4355Tie
Kenneth WalkerRB20.3424Vegas
Christian McCaffreyRB19.6543Experts
James CookRB19.46.587Vegas
Jeremiyah LoveRB19.46.52526.5Experts
Jaylen WarrenRB19.182111Vegas
Kyren WilliamsRB18.891519Experts
Javonte WilliamsRB17.3101315Experts
Bhayshul TutenRB16112326.5Experts
Chuba HubbardRB13121612.5Vegas
Aaron JonesRB11.7132220.5Vegas
Tony PollardRB11.6142924Vegas
Cam SkatteboRB11.5152022Experts
Ashton JeantyRB10.81678Vegas
Rachaad WhiteRB10.6173534.5Vegas
D'Andre SwiftRB9.8181717Tie
Quinshon JudkinsRB8.9192416Vegas
Woody MarksRB8.6203233Experts
Saquon BarkleyRB8.5211014Vegas
Jonathan TaylorRB8.22266Tie
Travis EtienneRB8232629Experts
Chase BrownRB7.92499Tie
RJ HarveyRB7.7253332Vegas
Breece HallRB7261112.5Vegas
Bucky IrvingRB6.8271920.5Vegas
David MontgomeryRB5.8281823Vegas
Omarion HamptonRB5.6291218Vegas
Rhamondre StevensonRB5.3302828Tie
TreVeyon HendersonRB3.4312730Vegas
Kyle MonangaiRB3.1323131Tie
MarShawn LloydRB2.8333434.5Experts
De'Von AchaneRB1.7341410Experts
Jadarian PriceRB0.7353025Experts
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR30.36111Tie
Drake LondonWR23.921313Tie
Garrett WilsonWR21.7398Vegas
Michael WilsonWR20.443031Experts
Ja'Marr ChaseWR20.3534Vegas
Christian WatsonWR19.16109Vegas
Matthew GoldenWR18.572120Vegas
Kalif RaymondWR188.55859Experts
Tee HigginsWR188.51921.5Experts
Jordan AddisonWR17.5103944Experts
Davante AdamsWR17.21176Experts
CeeDee LambWR16.712.543Experts
Terry McLaurinWR16.712.53439Experts
Luther BurdenWR16.3143649Experts
Jakobi MeyersWR15.9154844Vegas
Deebo SamuelWR15.4162529Experts
Keenan AllenWR15.3175551Vegas
Chris OlaveWR15.218.555Tie
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR15.218.55252Tie
Rashee RiceWR12.3202017.5Experts
George PickensWR11.7211212Tie
Parker WashingtonWR11.5221110.5Experts
Mike EvansWR10.9231519Vegas
DK MetcalfWR10.624.52621.5Experts
Tre' HarrisWR10.624.55656Tie
Josh DownsWR10.2262727Tie
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR9.92722Tie
DeVonta SmithWR9.528810.5Vegas
Carnell TateWR8.8294148Experts
Emeka EgbukaWR8.7302324Vegas
Ladd McConkeyWR8.631.51715.5Experts
Malik WashingtonWR8.631.55146.5Vegas
Denzel BostonWR7.1333732Vegas
Jameson WilliamsWR6.9342423Experts
Romeo DoubsWR6.4352935Vegas
Tre TuckerWR6.3364337Vegas
Courtland SuttonWR6.1374241Vegas
Rome OdunzeWR5.9384558Experts
Marvin HarrisonWR5.539.55355Experts
Quentin JohnstonWR5.539.54041Experts
Devaughn VeleWR5.441.53328Experts
Jaylen WaddleWR5.441.51617.5Vegas
Stefon DiggsWR5.3433250Vegas
Malik NabersWR5.1441425.5Vegas
Rashod BatemanWR4.7452825.5Experts
Makai LemonWR4.4465757Tie
Dontayvion WicksWR4.247.53536Vegas
Justin JeffersonWR4.247.567Vegas
Chris GodwinWR4493841Vegas
Ryan FlournoyWR3.2505953.5Vegas
Kayshon BoutteWR3.1515046.5Experts
Xavier WorthyWR3524433.5Experts
Jalen CokerWR2.8532215.5Experts
Tetairoa McMillanWR2.7541814Experts
Rashid ShaheedWR2.4555453.5Experts
KC ConcepcionWR1.9564938Experts
Brian ThomasWR1.3574744Experts
Khalil ShakirWR1.1584630Experts
Adonai Mitchell · InactiveWR0593133.5Vegas
George KittleTE23.2177Tie
Brock BowersTE22.62410Experts
Harold FanninTE20.631314Experts
Kenyon SadiqTE2042523Vegas
Juwan JohnsonTE19.351216Experts
Travis KelceTE12.9662Experts
Trey McBrideTE12711Tie
Tyler WarrenTE10.28810Experts
AJ BarnerTE9.492124Experts
Jake FergusonTE7.8101920.5Experts
Darren WallerTE7.6112425Experts
Sam LaPortaTE5.91236Vegas
Colston LovelandTE5.1131522Experts
Brenton StrangeTE4.7142320.5Vegas
Tucker KraftTE4.61558Vegas
Dalton SchultzTE4.51694Experts
Pat FreiermuthTE4.1171718Experts
Mark AndrewsTE3.918115Experts
Dalton KincaidTE2.81923Vegas
Isaiah LikelyTE2.3201013Vegas
T.J. HockensonTE2.1212218Experts
Terrance FergusonTE1.4221410Experts
Hunter HenryTE123.51812Experts
Kyle PittsTE123.52018Experts
Oronde GadsdenTE0251615Experts
Scoring and result sources

Final game status: ESPN. Results: Sleeper’s raw Week 3 stats, checked Sep 30, 2026. Scoring: 1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing TD, −2 per interception; 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 per rushing/receiving or return TD, −2 per lost fumble, 2 per two-point conversion, and 0.5 per reception. No yardage bonuses. Zero-point results require confirmed participation or a sourced inactive report; absent stats are never assumed to be zero.

Inactive evidence: Adonai Mitchell.

Latest saved prediction archive saved Sep 28, 2:23 PM EDT. Each player’s inputs were saved before their own kickoff. Expert and sportsbook sources can have different update times. Expert and Vegas ranks cover this matched group, not every NFL player. Which experts?

WEEK 3 COMPARISON

The same players. Two rankings.

Expert consensus from FantasyPros via Boris Chen. Vegas fantasy estimates calculated from posted sportsbook props.

Both sides rank the same matched players within each position. We verify the expert file’s week, scoring format and opponent, and require usable pregame sportsbook coverage. Published source ranks and timestamps appear in each player’s details. The source files don’t identify individual contributing analysts.

Vegas points are our estimates, not fantasy totals published by sportsbooks. Sources update on their collection schedules; gaps and delays can reduce coverage. This link always refers to 2026 Week 3. Unplayed games keep updating as props arrive. Each player’s saved estimates stop updating at their kickoff; newer weeks never replace this edition. Players without qualifying Vegas data stay visible with their published expert rank.

See who had Week 1 right →